Wildfire frequency varies with the size and shape of fuel types in southeastern France: implications for environmental management.

Characterizing time intervals between successive fires in the recent history is of main interest for fire hazard prevention and sustainable environmental management as it indicates what the typical fire return interval for each type of ecosystem is. We tested the extent to which fire return intervals (FRIs) depend on fuel type and age, and we compared FRI values between two fire-prone areas of south-eastern France (Provence). These areas had similar weather and roughly similar fuel types but fuels occurred in patches with different sizes and shapes in the landscape. We built a fire database (1960-2010) and we fitted Weibull distributions of FRI in order to compute the probability density function and the hazard of burning. Our results indicate maximal probability of burning again for shrublands (garrigues and maquis), and minimal values for mixed broadleaf-conifer forests and broadleaved forests. Most fuel types of Provence showed no effect of fuel age on the probability of burning again. Only the unmanaged maquis showed a linear increase of fire hazard in time due to a rapid postfire fuel build up. Rather long fire-free intervals and low age-dependency for most forest fuels of Provence suggest that reducing their biomass may not be sufficient to reduce fire risk. In contrast, the flammable shrublands have rather short fire return intervals and represent a high fire hazard for the whole study area. The two areas had statistically significant difference of fire return intervals for a same fuel type (e.g. 18-22 years for shrublands, 20-24 years for pine forests, and 24-27 years for oak forests). This suggested that size, shape and connectivity of fuels play a major role in the probability of burning again and should be taken into account for fire management. The present policy of fire prevention puts efforts into public information and prevention, and preferential management of fuels at risk in the vicinity of roads and wildland-urban interfaces where fires occur preferentially. However, fire suppression may also take advantage of favouring low-flammable fuels with low age-dependency on strategic places in the landscape.